Formation of an Avatar, Exploration
On 18 July, Dr Barry Warmkessel asked "Did your EGGs produce anything abnormal on 18 June 2008 +/ 2 days?" I responded that our research protocol requires identifying an event we think may engage large numbers of people and specifying beginning and end times plus the statistical measure to be used, then extracting the data and performing an analysis. We don't scan the data for unusual or abnormal activity.
He explained that "Our work involves formation of Avatars like Gandhi." His thought was that such events should stimulate the global consciousness, and hoped we would do an analysis. I decided to go ahead with an exploratory look, at the 18th of June. The result is shown in the first graph, which I interpret as normal data -- no indication of any unusual trends or sharp deviations suggesting a network response.
However, though this might seem disapointing, we know that the S/N ratio is small, so that single event analyses cannot be reliably interpreted. The average effect size is in the range of 0.3 to 0.5 standard deviations, and this literally means that we need to have data from 20 or 30 events to accumulate enough statistical power. So -- there is no case to be made with the examination of just one event, whether in a positive or null direction. Put another way, the GCP data cannot be expected to determine whether or not something like the descent or manifestation of an Avatar might have occurred.
With more precise information, Dr. Warmkessel requested a second analysis. "Putting all the data together, the best case we have for a manifestation that occurred more than 2000 years ago is 16 June 2008 8 AM EST = 13 GMT. While the data on this kind of thing is sparse to say the least, we can make a case 'as such' for this date with multisource information."
I proceeded with a second exploratory analysis using this date and time. Again there is no clear trend in the data, nor is there an appearance of unusual activity around 1300 +/- one hour, which is shown in the graph. However, it is worth noting that the 24 hour day does show a modest deviation, with a terminal value of Z = 0.58, which is in the range of the composite average of the full database of formal GCP analyses. Again, we must keep in mind the caveats. It is possible that the GCP network is not responsive to events of the sort indicated, but even if it were, the average effect size is too small to expect confirmation or rejection of the hypothesis without a dozen or more events of a similar kind.