New Year's 2009-2010
This year again we use the longstanding predictions of a meanshift (squared Stouffer Z) during 10 minutes surrounding midnight, and a variance decrease with a minimum at midnight. These two measures have been assessed for each New Year since 1998-1999, a total of 12 years.
The probability for the squared Stouffer Z for this year is positive but not significant at p=0.187 with Z=0.887.
For the Variance decrease, a comparison with the distribution of 10000 permutations of the data indicates a modest probability of 0.203 and Z=0.829, in accord with the prediction.
In addition to the two figures above representing the results for the current year, a composite over the 12 years is shown for the variance decrease prediction, which is supported with a p-value of 0.030 and Z=1.879. The meanshift is nonsignificantly negative, contrary to the original prediction.
The following figure is a graph of the average of the variance over 12-years.