Extended Analysis for Pope Transition

Adrian Patrut sent a detailed description of events surrounding the Pope's death. An exploratory assessment can add to our ability to interpret the data over this period. For the formal analyses, see Pope's Death and Funeral.

1. THE POPE'S AGONY Friday, April 1, 2005.

After the alarming news were broken on the Pope's health, along with ca. 70,000 people gathered in St. Peter's square, several hundreds of million people watched on TV the fast progress of events.
At 17.00 UTC, a medical report was released on the Pope's extremely severe condition.
At 17.07, the Swiss guards closed one of the entrance doors (the bronze western door) of the Vatican, announcing by this the close decease of the Pope.
At 17.08, a new medical report states that the condition of the pope is hopeless.
From 17 through 18.10, an emotional service was held in San Giovanni basilica in Laterano in Roma, for the Pope's health. This service, celebrated by Cardinal Camillo Ruini, vicar of rome, was broadcasted in the entire world (including Al Jazeera).
At 17.43, Cardinal Ruini announced that "the Pope already sees and touches the Lord". Italy's President Carlo Ciampi and Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi attended the service.
At 18.21, several press agencies reported that the Pope would be in cerebral death status.
At 18.33, several press agencies wired the announcement according to which the Pope has passed away. (I believe that this moment has generated an extreme emotion.). The information is not confirmad by the Vatican.
At 18.45, the Vatican has denied the information, stating that the Pope is still alive and he would not even be in coma, though his condition is irremediably compromised. Millions of people continued waiting on updates regarding the Pope's condition.

I believe that one should analyze the results in the time frame 16 - 20 UTC.

The Pope's Agony

2. THE POPE'S DEATH Saturday, April 2, 2005

At 19.37 UTC the Pope passed away.
At 19.51, ANSA Agency, re-wired by RAI UNO, has announced laconically the Pope's death.
At 19.57. CNN and other TV stations have reported the death.
At 20.10, Cardinal Camillo Ruini, vicar of Rome, announced officially to the crowd in Piazza San Pietro that "our beloved Pope has returned Home". After that, all major TV stations have dedicated programs to the Pope's memory.

I believe that one should analyze the results in the time frame 18 - 24 UTC.

The Pope's Death

3. THE FUNERAL OF POPE JOHN PAUL II (KAROL WOYTYLA)
Friday, April 8, 2005.

08.03 - 08.06 UTC: the cypress coffin with the Pope's corpse is brought out from St. Peter's Basilica and placed in the square.
08.07 - 08.17: the homage of cardinals and patriarchs in front of the coffin.
08.18 - 10.32: Cardinal Ratzinger holds the Funeral Mass in St. Peter's square, in the presence of over 100 cardinals and 300 political personalities, as well as millions around St. Peter's Square and over one billion in front of televisions everywhere.
10.37 - 10.41: the coffin with the Pope's corpse is lifted from St. Peter's square and brought back to the Basilica. no time data: the public ceremony was followed by a private ceremony, during which the cypress coffin with the Pope's remains was be sealed into a zinc coffin, then into another oak casket and was placed into a marble tomb in the grottoes beneath St Peter's Basilica.

4. THE ELECTION OF THE NEW POPE

It will be announced by the Cardinals Conclave that will start on April 18.

Adrian Patrut provided details of the Papal election and annnouncement of Cardinal Ratzinger as the new Pope, who chose the name Benedictus XVI. Adrian proposed that we should analyze the results in the time frame 15:45 17:45 UTC, and the following graph shows the result, which is a strong, positive trend, especially following the new Pope's first appearance. This is again, not a formal hypothesis test, but is provided for context.

New Pope Benedictus

Adrian Patrut provided details of the Investiture of the New Pope, on April 24 2005. Adrian proposed that we should analyze the results in the time frame 08:00 to 11:00 UTC, and the following graph shows the result, which is about as flat as can be. This is again, not a formal hypothesis test, but is provided for context.

Investiture 
Pope Benedictus


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